Me Died Blue
Puritan Board Post-Graduate
Brian's good thread made me think of this now-famous statistical question:
You are playing a game show in which there are three closed doors: 1, 2 and 3, exactly one of which has a prize behind it. First you point to one of the doors, but it still remains closed for now, just highlighted. After that selection, the host will open one of the other two doors, which will definitely not have the prize behind it. At that point, you know the prize is either behind the one you first highlighted, or else the one that was neither highlighted by you nor opened by the host. And now you have a choice: You can either stick with the one you initially highlighted, and open only it; or you can change from that one and open only the one that hasn't been highlighted or opened.
The question is, at this point, do you have:
A) A greater statistical chance of winning by staying with your initial unopened door?
B) A greater statistical chance of winning by switching to the other unopened door?
C) An identical, 50/50 statistical chance of winning by opening either one of the two remaining unopened doors?
Enjoy
You are playing a game show in which there are three closed doors: 1, 2 and 3, exactly one of which has a prize behind it. First you point to one of the doors, but it still remains closed for now, just highlighted. After that selection, the host will open one of the other two doors, which will definitely not have the prize behind it. At that point, you know the prize is either behind the one you first highlighted, or else the one that was neither highlighted by you nor opened by the host. And now you have a choice: You can either stick with the one you initially highlighted, and open only it; or you can change from that one and open only the one that hasn't been highlighted or opened.
The question is, at this point, do you have:
A) A greater statistical chance of winning by staying with your initial unopened door?
B) A greater statistical chance of winning by switching to the other unopened door?
C) An identical, 50/50 statistical chance of winning by opening either one of the two remaining unopened doors?
Enjoy