2022 PB College Football Pick-Em Bowl Bash

[greenbaggins]

Rules are simple. All wins from the regular season count as 1 point. Most of the bowls will count as 1 point. The New Year's Six minus the playoffs will count as 2 points. The playoff games are 4 points, and the championship is 8 points. I am adding a new wrinkle, though, for the championship game. Since we have to guess who is going to be in the championship game before the playoff games happen, I will award half points in the championship game if you pick the right winner, but they face a different opponent than you picked. Example. you pick Georgia to beat Michigan. Instead, Georgia plays and beats TCU. You picked the right winner of the championship game, but wrong opponent. You will get 4 points for that. This is, of course, only applicable for the championship game. Fortunately, no bowls have been scheduled on Sunday, so they're all on. I will post updates on points at least once a week, more if there are a significant number of games in a given week. All entries are due before Friday Dec 16, at 10:30 AM Central Time. I count 42 total games. If there are any typos, please point them out to me.

Bahamas Bowl: Miami OH v UAB Friday Dec 16 10:30 AM
Cure Bowl: 25 UTSA v 24 Troy Friday Dec 16 2 PM
Fenway Bowl: Cincinnati v Louisville Saturday Dec 17 10 AM
New Mexico Bowl: SMU v BYU Saturday Dec 17 1:15 PM
L.A. Bowl: Washington State v Fresno State Saturday Dec 17 2:30 PM
Lending Tree Bowl: Rice v Southern Miss Saturday Dec 17 4:45 PM
Las Vegas Bowl: Florida v 14 Oregon State Saturday Dec 17 6:30 PM
Frisco Bowl: North Texas v Boise State Saturday Dec 17 8:15 PM
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Marshall v UConn Monday Dec 19 1:30 PM
Idaho Potato Bowl: E Michigan v San Jose State Tuesday Dec 20 2:30 PM
Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty v Toledo Tuesday Dec 20 6:30 PM
New Orleans Bowl: Western KY v South Alabama Wednesday Dec 21 8 PM
Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor v Air Force Thursday Dec 22 6:30 PM
Independence Bowl: Louisiana v Houston Friday Dec 23 2 PM
Gasparilla Bowl: Wake Forest v Missouri Friday Dec 23 5:30 PM
Hawai'i Bowl: MTSU v San Diego State Saturday Dec 24 7 PM
Quick Lane Bowl: New Mexico State v Bowling Green Monday Dec 26 1:30 PM
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern v Buffalo Tuesday Dec 27 11 AM
First Responder Bowl: Memphis v Utah State Tuesday Dec 27 2:15 PM
Birmingham Bowl: Coastal Carolina v East Carolina Tuesday Dec 27 5:45 PM
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wisconsin v Oklahoma State Tuesday Dec 27 9:15 PM
Military Bowl: UCF v Duke Wednesday Dec 28 1 PM
Liberty Bowl: Kansas v Arkansas Wednesday Dec 28 4:30 PM
Holiday Bowl: 15 Oregon v North Carolina Wednesday Dec 28 7 PM
Texas Bowl: Texas Tech v Ole Miss Wednesday Dec 28 8 PM
Pinstripe Bowl: Syracuse v Minnesota Thursday Dec 29 1 PM
Cheez-It Bowl: Oklahoma v 13 Florida State Thursday Dec 29 4:30 PM
Alamo Bowl: 20 Texas v 12 Washington Thursday Dec 29 8 PM
Mayo Bowl: Maryland v 23 NC State Friday Dec 30 11 AM
Sun Bowl: Pitt v 18 UCLA Friday Dec 30 1 PM
Gator Bowl: 21 Notre Dame v 19 South Carolina Friday Dec 30 2:30 PM
Arizona Bowl: Ohio v Wyoming Friday Dec 30 3:30 PM
Orange Bowl (2): 6 Tennessee v 7 Clemson Friday Dec 30 7 PM
Sugar Bowl (2): 5 Alabama v 9 Kansas State Saturday Dec 31 11 AM
Music City Bowl: Iowa v Kentucky Saturday Dec 31 11 AM
Fiesta Bowl (4): 3 TCU v 2 Michigan Saturday Dec 31 3 PM
Peach Bowl (4): 4 Ohio State v 1 Georgia Saturday Dec 31 7 PM
ReliaQuest Bowl: 22 Mississippi State v Illinois Monday Jan 2 11 AM
Cotton Bowl (2): 16 Tulane v 10 USC Monday Jan 2 12 PM
Citrus Bowl: 17 LSU v Purdue Monday Jan 2 12 PM
Rose Bowl (2): 11 Penn State v 8 Utah Monday Jan 2 4 PM
CFP National Championship (8): TBD Monday Jan 9 6:30 PM

 

[Jason F.]

Will we be able to change picks up until the deadline?

 

[SolaScriptura]

Will we be able to change picks up until the deadline?

If normal rules follow: yes! But any changes will update your date/time of submission for tie-breaker purposes.

So, if I post my picks today and am the first one… that’s nice. But if the day before cutoff I decide to change some picks, even one, and y’all have posted yours… when I update I’ll go from being first to post all the way to most recent to post.

 

[greenbaggins]

If normal rules follow: yes! But any changes will update your date/time of submission for tie-breaker purposes.

So, if I post my picks today and am the first one… that’s nice. But if the day before cutoff I decide to change some picks, even one, and y’all have posted yours… when I update I’ll go from being first to post all the way to most recent to post.

Yes, this is how I see things. Any changes can happen to your picks up until the deadline. Any changes might bring your post to a new order. By the way, did we usually use the championship game in the past as a tie-breaker with scores and everything?

 

[Jason F.]

OK thanks. With all the movement due to the current transfer portal rules, I wanted to make sure I could change my picks if needed.

UAB
UTSA
Louisville
SMU
Southern Miss
Washington State
Florida
Boise State
Marshall
San Jose State
Liberty
South Alabama
Baylor
Houston
Wake Forest
San Diego State
Bowling Green
Georgia Southern
Memphis
East Carolina
Oklahoma State
UCF
Arkansas
Oregon
Ole Miss
Minnesota
Florida State
Washington
NC State
UCLA
South Carolina
Wyoming
Clemson
Alabama
Kentucky
Michigan
Georgia
Mississippi State
USC
LSU
Utah
Georgia

 

[greenbaggins]

UAB, Troy, Louisville, Oregon State, Washington State, USM, BYU, Boise State, Marshall, E Michigan, Liberty, S. Bama, Baylor, Houston, WF, SDSU, NM State, Buffalo, Memphis, CCU, OkSt, Duke, Ark, Oregon, Ole Miss, Minnesota, FSU, Washington, NCState, UCLA, SCar, Ohio, Tennessee, Bama, Iowa, Michigan (GO TCU!), UGA, Illinois, USC, LSU, Utah, UGA 41, Michigan 38

 

[earl40]

UAB
Troy
Cincinnati
BYU
Washington State
Southern Miss
Oregon State
Boise State
Marshall
E Michigan
Toledo
South Alabama
Baylor
Houston
Missouri
San Diego State
New Mexico State
Georgia Southern
Memphis
Coastal Carolina
Oklahoma State
Duke
Arkansas
Oregon
Ole Miss
Syracuse
Florida State
Texas
NC State
UCLA
Notre Dame
Ohio
Tennessee
Alabama
Kentucky
Michigan
Georgia
Mississippi State
USC
LSU
Penn State

Michigan

 

[SolaScriptura]

Bahamas Bowl: Miami OH v UAB Friday Dec 16 10:30 AM
Cure Bowl: 25 UTSA v 24 Troy Friday Dec 16 2 PM
Fenway Bowl: Cincinnati v Louisville Saturday Dec 17 10 AM
New Mexico Bowl: SMU v BYU Saturday Dec 17 1:15 PM
L.A. Bowl: Washington State v Fresno State Saturday Dec 17 2:30 PM
Lending Tree Bowl: Rice v Southern Miss Saturday Dec 17 4:45 PM
Las Vegas Bowl: Florida v 14 Oregon State Saturday Dec 17 6:30 PM
Frisco Bowl: North Texas v Boise State Saturday Dec 17 8:15 PM
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Marshall v UConn Monday Dec 19 1:30 PM
Idaho Potato Bowl: E Michigan v San Jose State Tuesday Dec 20 2:30 PM
Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty v Toledo Tuesday Dec 20 6:30 PM
New Orleans Bowl: Western KY v South Alabama Wednesday Dec 21 8 PM
Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor v Air Force Thursday Dec 22 6:30 PM
Independence Bowl: Louisiana v Houston Friday Dec 23 2 PM
Gasparilla Bowl: Wake Forest v Missouri Friday Dec 23 5:30 PM
Hawai'i Bowl: MTSU v San Diego State Saturday Dec 24 7 PM
Quick Lane Bowl: New Mexico State v Bowling Green Monday Dec 26 1:30 PM
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern v Buffalo Tuesday Dec 27 11 AM
First Responder Bowl: Memphis v Utah State Tuesday Dec 27 2:15 PM
Birmingham Bowl: Coastal Carolina v East Carolina Tuesday Dec 27 5:45 PM
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wisconsin v Oklahoma State Tuesday Dec 27 9:15 PM
Military Bowl: UCF v Duke Wednesday Dec 28 1 PM
Liberty Bowl: Kansas v Arkansas Wednesday Dec 28 4:30 PM
Holiday Bowl: 15 Oregon v North Carolina Wednesday Dec 28 7 PM
Texas Bowl: Texas Tech v Ole Miss Wednesday Dec 28 8 PM
Pinstripe Bowl: Syracuse v Minnesota Thursday Dec 29 1 PM
Cheez-It Bowl: Oklahoma v 13 Florida State Thursday Dec 29 4:30 PM
Alamo Bowl: 20 Texas v 12 Washington Thursday Dec 29 8 PM
Mayo Bowl: Maryland v 23 NC State Friday Dec 30 11 AM
Sun Bowl: Pitt v 18 UCLA Friday Dec 30 1 PM
Gator Bowl: 21 Notre Dame v 19 South Carolina Friday Dec 30 2:30 PM
Arizona Bowl: Ohio v Wyoming Friday Dec 30 3:30 PM
Orange Bowl (2): 6 Tennessee v 7 Clemson Friday Dec 30 7 PM
Sugar Bowl (2): 5 Alabama v 9 Kansas State Saturday Dec 31 11 AM
Music City Bowl: Iowa v Kentucky Saturday Dec 31 11 AM
Fiesta Bowl (4): 3 TCU v 2 Michigan Saturday Dec 31 3 PM
Peach Bowl (4): 4 Ohio State v 1 Georgia Saturday Dec 31 7 PM
ReliaQuest Bowl: 22 Mississippi State v Illinois Monday Jan 2 11 AM
Cotton Bowl (2): 16 Tulane v 10 USC Monday Jan 2 12 PM
Citrus Bowl: 17 LSU v Purdue Monday Jan 2 12 PM
Rose Bowl (2): 11 Penn State v 8 Utah Monday Jan 2 4 PM

CFP National Championship (8): Georgia Monday Jan 9 6:30 PM

*** Per Lane's update, I'm updating to specify for the Championship Game: Georgia 32 - Michigan 21

 

[greenbaggins]

Edward, Edm, and Todd remain for their picks to get in.

 

[toddpedlar]

We used the championship game score as the tiebreaker, yes, but if I was designing the tiebreaker I'd probably go

1) right champion
2) right runner up
3) winner score (I guess, though you know my thoughts on this)
4) losing score

If it were up to me, though, I'd substitute the absolute number of games correctly picked at step 3. The raw winner's score doesn't distinguish between a prediction of 42-0 and 42-41 if the winning team scores 42.

 

[Edward]

Taking off work tomorrpw to do it.

 

[toddpedlar]

Bahamas Bowl: Miami OH v UAB Friday Dec 16 10:30 AM
Cure Bowl: 25 UTSA v 24 Troy Friday Dec 16 2 PM
Fenway Bowl: Cincinnati v Louisville Saturday Dec 17 10 AM
New Mexico Bowl: SMU v BYU Saturday Dec 17 1:15 PM
L.A. Bowl: Washington State v Fresno State Saturday Dec 17 2:30 PM
Lending Tree Bowl: Rice v Southern Miss Saturday Dec 17 4:45 PM
Las Vegas Bowl: Florida v 14 Oregon State Saturday Dec 17 6:30 PM
Frisco Bowl: North Texas v Boise State Saturday Dec 17 8:15 PM
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Marshall v UConn Monday Dec 19 1:30 PM
Idaho Potato Bowl: E Michigan v San Jose State Tuesday Dec 20 2:30 PM
Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty v Toledo Tuesday Dec 20 6:30 PM
New Orleans Bowl: Western KY v South Alabama Wednesday Dec 21 8 PM
Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor v Air Force Thursday Dec 22 6:30 PM
Independence Bowl: Louisiana v Houston Friday Dec 23 2 PM
Gasparilla Bowl: Wake Forest v Missouri Friday Dec 23 5:30 PM
Hawai'i Bowl: MTSU v San Diego State Saturday Dec 24 7 PM
Quick Lane Bowl: New Mexico State v Bowling Green Monday Dec 26 1:30 PM
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern v Buffalo Tuesday Dec 27 11 AM
First Responder Bowl: Memphis v Utah State Tuesday Dec 27 2:15 PM
Birmingham Bowl: Coastal Carolina v East Carolina Tuesday Dec 27 5:45 PM
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wisconsin v Oklahoma State Tuesday Dec 27 9:15 PM
Military Bowl: UCF v Duke Wednesday Dec 28 1 PM
Liberty Bowl: Kansas v Arkansas Wednesday Dec 28 4:30 PM
Holiday Bowl: 15 Oregon v North Carolina Wednesday Dec 28 7 PM
Texas Bowl: Texas Tech v Ole Miss Wednesday Dec 28 8 PM
Pinstripe Bowl: Syracuse v Minnesota Thursday Dec 29 1 PM
Cheez-It Bowl: Oklahoma v 13 Florida State Thursday Dec 29 4:30 PM
Alamo Bowl: 20 Texas v 12 Washington Thursday Dec 29 8 PM
Mayo Bowl: Maryland v 23 NC State Friday Dec 30 11 AM
Sun Bowl: Pitt v 18 UCLA Friday Dec 30 1 PM
Gator Bowl: 21 Notre Dame v 19 South Carolina Friday Dec 30 2:30 PM
Arizona Bowl: Ohio v Wyoming Friday Dec 30 3:30 PM
Orange Bowl (2): 6 Tennessee v 7 Clemson Friday Dec 30 7 PM
Sugar Bowl (2): 5 Alabama v 9 Kansas State Saturday Dec 31 11 AM
Music City Bowl: Iowa v Kentucky Saturday Dec 31 11 AM
Fiesta Bowl (4): 3 TCU v 2 Michigan Saturday Dec 31 3 PM
Peach Bowl (4): 4 Ohio State v 1 Georgia Saturday Dec 31 7 PM
ReliaQuest Bowl: 22 Mississippi State v Illinois Monday Jan 2 11 AM
Cotton Bowl (2): 16 Tulane v 10 USC Monday Jan 2 12 PM
Citrus Bowl: 17 LSU v Purdue Monday Jan 2 12 PM
Rose Bowl (2): 11 Penn State v 8 Utah Monday Jan 2 4 PM
CFP National Championship (8): Georgia vs Michigan Monday Jan 9 6:30 PM, 38-34

 

[Edward]

UAB
Troy
Louisville
Fla
Washington State
Southern Miss
SMU
Boise State
Marshall
San Jose
Toledo
South Alabama
Baylor
Houston
Mizzouri
San Diego State
Bowling Green
Ga Southern
Memphis
East Carolina
Oklahoma State
Central Florida
Arkansas
Oregon
Old Miss
Minnesota
FSU
Texas
MaryLand
UCLA
Notre Dame
The Ohio University
Tennessee
Bama
Iowa
Michigan
Georgia
Mississippi State
Tulane
LSU
Utah
SoFi Bowl – Georgia over Michigan

edit:
Georgia 27, Michigan 24.

 

[Edm]

Bahamas Bowl: Miami OH Friday Dec 16 10:30 AM
Cure Bowl: 24 Troy Friday Dec 16 2 PM
Fenway Bowl: Louisville Saturday Dec 17 10 AM
New Mexico Bowl: SMU Saturday Dec 17 1:15 PM
L.A. Bowl: Washington State Saturday Dec 17 2:30 PM
Lending Tree Bowl: Southern Miss Saturday Dec 17 4:45 PM
Las Vegas Bowl: 14 Oregon State Saturday Dec 17 6:30 PM
Frisco Bowl: Boise State Saturday Dec 17 8:15 PM
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Marshall Monday Dec 19 1:30 PM
Idaho Potato Bowl: E Michigan Tuesday Dec 20 2:30 PM
Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo Tuesday Dec 20 6:30 PM
New Orleans Bowl: Western KY Wednesday Dec 21 8 PM
Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor Thursday Dec 22 6:30 PM
Independence Bowl: Louisiana Friday Dec 23 2 PM
Gasparilla Bowl: Missouri Friday Dec 23 5:30 PM
Hawai'i Bowl: San Diego State Saturday Dec 24 7 PM
Quick Lane Bowl: New Mexico State Monday Dec 26 1:30 PM
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern Tuesday Dec 27 11 AM
First Responder Bowl: Memphis Tuesday Dec 27 2:15 PM
Birmingham Bowl: Coastal Carolina Tuesday Dec 27 5:45 PM
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wisconsin Tuesday Dec 27 9:15 PM
Military Bowl: UCF Wednesday Dec 28 1 PM
Liberty Bowl: Arkansas Wednesday Dec 28 4:30 PM
Holiday Bowl: 15 Oregon Wednesday Dec 28 7 PM
Texas Bowl: Texas Tech Wednesday Dec 28 8 PM
Pinstripe Bowl: Minnesota Thursday Dec 29 1 PM
Cheez-It Bowl: 13 Florida State Thursday Dec 29 4:30 PM
Alamo Bowl: 20 Texas Thursday Dec 29 8 PM
Mayo Bowl: 23 NC State Friday Dec 30 11 AM
Sun Bowl: 18 UCLA Friday Dec 30 1 PM
Gator Bowl: 19 South Carolina Friday Dec 30 2:30 PM
Arizona Bowl: Ohio Friday Dec 30 3:30 PM
Orange Bowl (2): 7 Clemson Friday Dec 30 7 PM
Sugar Bowl (2): 5 Alabama Saturday Dec 31 11 AM
Music City Bowl: Iowa Saturday Dec 31 11 AM
Fiesta Bowl (4): 3 TCU Saturday Dec 31 3 PM
Peach Bowl (4): 1 Georgia Saturday Dec 31 7 PM
ReliaQuest Bowl: 22 Mississippi State Monday Jan 2 11 AM
Cotton Bowl (2): 16 Tulane Monday Jan 2 12 PM
Citrus Bowl: 17 LSU Monday Jan 2 12 PM
Rose Bowl (2): 8 Utah Monday Jan 2 4 PM
CFP National Championship (8): TBD Monday Jan 9 6:30 PM
Georgia

 

[greenbaggins]

Assuming my counting is correct, we have the following scores after the first weekend (this includes the starting number):

Lane 9
Ben 9
Edward 9
Earl 7
Jason F 6
Todd 6
Edm 6

 

[greenbaggins]

A new count gives us the following (including yesterday's games):

Lane 16
Ben 14
Edward 14
Earl 13
Edm 13
Todd 12
Jason F 11

 

[greenbaggins]

In case some of you don't get the PM, I will put this alert here as well:

Gentlemen, the score on the bash is close enough that I want to have a tie-breaker in place. It will be as follows: 1. correct champion; 2. correct runner-up; 3. closest winner score; 4. closest loser score. This means that you all need to edit your posts to include a final score on the championship game (no other alterations, of course). The deadline for getting in this score is kickoff on the first playoff game between Michigan and TCU (Saturday 12/31, 3 PM CST).

 

[toddpedlar]

I had already chosen a championship game score, so I need no edits.

I would urge you, however, to please consider using another metric for the score. A final game where Georgia beats Michigan 42-7 should not find us celebrating as champion someone who predicted a score of 42-41 when someone else predicted 45-10. It's your game to run, of course, but surely you see the better logic in a more holistic final score prediction criterion.

 

[greenbaggins]

I had already chosen a championship game score, so I need no edits.

I would urge you, however, to please consider using another metric for the score. A final game where Georgia beats Michigan 42-7 should not find us celebrating as champion someone who predicted a score of 42-41 when someone else predicted 45-10. It's your game to run, of course, but surely you see the better logic in a more holistic final score prediction criterion.

I hear you, Todd, but that is a bit beyond my math skills. I see the two scores as almost independent, since totally different people are on the field in the two phases. I couldn't afford the time to figure that out.

 

[toddpedlar]

Well, there are volunteers who could help if you were willing to use my score proximity calculation...

But beyond this in your answer, I'm not sure what you mean by "totally different people are on the field in the two phases." What "two phases"? We're talking about a single game, and comparing winning score and calling it good, or if each have the same winning score, then comparing losing score. This is the same game, same teams.

At any rate I don't quite see how one could stomach handing the championship to a person who predicted 42-41 instead of one who predicted 45-10 when the actual score of the game was 42-7. Seems to me flatly unjust to award the championship to someone who so completely misjudged the ultimate result of the game. Since this could occur given you preferred method quite easily, why us it when there are alternatives that more reasonably reflect the quality of the prediction.

Here's another option that requires only computing simple differences (no squaring or anything more complicated):

Select those with the same overall point totals and got the final winner and loser correct. Of these contestants:

1. If one person has BOTH A) the closest winning score AND B) the closest losing score, he wins outright. (this would resolve my hypothetical case immediately)

2. If two different people have A and B, then you take the two (among the who have the closest winning score. Of those two, the winner is the one who has the closest winning margin.

3. If the two have the same winning margin, then the winner is the one who has the closest total of scores.

This will result in an unambiguous contest winner, and relies only on computing a few score differences. It's less accurate than what I've used when I've run the show, but it's much better than just comparing winning score and comparing losing score.

 

[greenbaggins]

Tell you what, Todd, since you seem to be willing to do that kind of math for the Pick-em, if I win, you can judge the winners next year using your algorithms, and I'll pick the games. I'm not going to change this year from what I have done in the past. I know one other change that would happen next year (again, if I win): the tie-breaking game each week would count in the final tally each week. People seem to prefer that.

 

[Edward]

I'll update tonight although with the way I'm headed, I won't be a factor in a tiebreaker.

I will say that I used the tiebreaker formula for several years without understanding how it worked. It was finally explained to me in a way in which I understood it. But until then I just plugged in the numbers and took it on faith that the lowest result was the winner.

 

[Jason F.]

Georgia 48-17

 

[greenbaggins]

Updated scores:

Lane 19
Edward 16
Earl 16
Edm 16
Ben 15
Todd 15
Jason F 13

 

[Edm]

I can’t seem to edit on my phone…GA 31- TCU 20

 

[greenbaggins]

We only need Earl now to update his thoughts on Michigan beating Georgia in the championship game, and all the tie-breaking scores will be in.

An update on the scores:

Lane 22
Edward 18
Edm 18
Earl 17
Ben 17
Todd 17
Jason F 16

 

[greenbaggins]

Getting close to the end now. Updated scores include yesterday's games.

Lane 25
Edward 23
Earl 21
Edm 19
Ben 20
Todd 18
Jason F 16

*Edit* Forgot that the Orange Bowl was a two-pointer. I have updated the scores to reflect this.

 

[earl40]

We only need Earl now to update his thoughts on Michigan beating Georgia in the championship game, and all the tie-breaking scores will be in.

An update on the scores:

Lane 22
Edward 18
Edm 18
Earl 17
Ben 17
Todd 17
Jason F 16

Mich 31 Ga 24

 

[greenbaggins]

Update on scores. Here comes Ed! He is the only one of us to guess correctly that TCU and Georgia would be the winners of the playoff, so his rise is meteoric, and could very well be final, especially if Georgia beats TCU in the end. Still a lot of football to play today, though.

Lane 32
Edward 30
Edm 30
Earl 27
Ben 27
Todd 25
Jason F 22

 

[greenbaggins]

If my figuring is correct, only Ed and I are left with a chance to win. Although Edward has the same points as Ed, he also has the exact same picks as Ed for the rest of the games. Ed has the potential for 14 more points, whereas Edward can only get 10 more. Jason, Earl, Ben, and Todd are down too many points to be able to catch up. If my picks in the ReliaQuest Bowl and the Cotton Bowl win out today, then I win the bash, because I will be 5 points up over Ed, and even a Georgia win would only net him 4 more points. If my picks don't win out, then one of two possibilities will happen: 1. If Ed's picks in those two bowls both win out, then he wins the bash. If we split (either way, it won't matter if he gains or loses one point), then the final winner will be determined by the championship game: If UGA wins, then Ed wins, if TCU wins, then I win.

*Correction* Edward is still in it. I forgot one other possibility. If Edward/Ed's picks both win out, then I am eliminated. However, if then TCU were to win the championship, then Edward would win the bash, because he has the prior entry.