2016 College Pick 'em contest - week 6

[Edward]

As usual, any PB member in good standing can play. The winner each week is eligible for the bowl final, with the winner of that running next year’s contest. Any suggestions for matchups for next week should be sent in by Wednesday, as I’m trying to get most of my matchups picked before the Saturday games so I can get them up early in the week.

#9 Tennessee at #6Texas A&M
#1 Alabama at #16 Arkansas
#23 FSU at#10 Miami
LSU at #18 Florida
Texas vs #20 Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl)
BYU at Michigan State
#25 Virginia Tech at #17 North Carolina
Notre Dame at NC State
Maryland at Penn State
Iowa at Minnesota
Army at Duke
Colorado at USC
Syracuse at Wake Forest

Tiebreaker
Pick winner and final score
Vanderbilt at Kentucky

 

[Frosty]

Texas A&M
Alabama
Miami
Florida
Oklahoma
Michigan State
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Maryland
Minnesota
Duke
USC
Syracuse

Vanderbilt 3-2

 

[toddpedlar]

#9 Tennessee at #6Texas A&M
#1 Alabama at #16 Arkansas
#23 FSU at#10 Miami
LSU at #18 Florida
Texas vs #20 Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl)
BYU at Michigan State
#25 Virginia Tech at #17 North Carolina
Notre Dame at NC State (I removed the redundant entry)
Maryland at Penn State
Iowa at Minnesota
Army at Duke
Colorado at USC
Syracuse at Wake Forest


Tiebreaker
Pick winner and final score
Vanderbilt at Kentucky - 30-21

 

[Edward]

Notre Dame at NC State (listed twice)

Thanks. Fixed it. It will only count once.

 

[zsmcd]

Great week of games!

#9 Tennessee at #6Texas A&M
#1 Alabama at #16 Arkansas
#23 FSU at#10 Miami
LSU at #18 Florida
Texas vs #20 Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl)
BYU at Michigan State
#25 Virginia Tech at #17 North Carolina
Notre Dame at NC State
Maryland at Penn State
Iowa at Minnesota
Army at Duke
Colorado at USC
Syracuse at Wake Forest

Tiebreaker
Vanderbilt 38-35

 

[GulfCoast Presbyterian]

Texas A&M
Alabama
Miami
Florida
Oklahoma
BYU
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Penn State
Iowa
Duke
Colorado
Wake Forest

Tiebreaker
Pick winner and final score
Vanderbilt (21)at Kentucky (17)

 

[Backwoods Presbyterian]

#6Texas A&M
16 Arkansas
10 Miami
#18 Florida
#20 Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl)
Michigan State
#17 North Carolina
Notre Dame
Maryland
Iowa
Army
Colorado
Syracuse

Tiebreaker
Pick winner and final score
Vanderbilt 27-18

 

[Bill The Baptist]

#9 Tennessee at #6Texas A&M
#1 Alabama at #16 Arkansas
#23 FSU at#10 Miami
LSU at #18 Florida
Texas vs #20 Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl)
BYU at Michigan State
#25 Virginia Tech at #17 North Carolina
Notre Dame at NC State
Maryland at Penn State
Iowa at Minnesota
Army at Duke
Colorado at USC
Syracuse at Wake Forest

Tiebreaker
Pick winner and final score
Vanderbilt at Kentucky 24-17

 

[Edward]

Texas A&M
Alabama
Miami
LSU
Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl)
Michigan State
North Carolina
NC State
Maryland
Iowa
Duke
USC
Wake Forest

Tiebreaker
Pick winner and final score
Vanderbilt 24 at Kentucky 27

 

[SolaScriptura]

#9 Tennessee
#1 Alabama
#10 Miami
#18 Florida
#20 Oklahoma
Michigan State
#17 North Carolina
NC State
Penn State
Iowa
Army
Colorado
Wake Forest

Tiebreaker

Kentucky 21-18

 

[mgkortus]

#9 Tennessee
#1 Alabama
#10 Miami
#18 Florida
#20 Oklahoma
Michigan State
#17 North Carolina
Notre Dame
Maryland
Iowa
Duke
Colorado
Wake Forest

Vanderbilt 24 - Kentucky 27

 

[Edward]

Making up new rules as we go along. At present, none of the games have been impacted by the storm, but it appears that at least 5* have potential for disruption depending on storm track and severity. At this point, I'm disposed to count any games that are played by Monday night, even if that delays results. Any others will be dropped from consideration. If you haven't picked yet, go ahead and pick all games. If games are moved forward, any games started before a pick is submitted will be discounted as to that person, so you would be playing with a handicap, but can still play.

And let's all keep Earl in our thoughts for the next couple of days.

Footnotes:
*#23 FSU at#10 Miami
LSU at #18 Florida
#25 Virginia Tech at #17 North Carolina
Notre Dame at NC State
Army at Duke

-----------
One down

LSU-Florida football game postponed
http://www.secsports.com/article/17731912/lsu-florida-football-game-postponed

I'd guess the Miami game is far enough south to have a shot at being played.

 

[Douglas P.]

#9 Tennessee
#16 Arkansas
#10 Miami
LSU
#20 Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl)
Michigan State
#17 North Carolina
Notre Dame
Maryland
Minnesota
Army
USC
Wake Forest

Tiebreaker

Vanderbilt 35-17

 

[earl40]

Tennessee
Alabama
FSU
LSU
Oklahoma
Michigan State
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Penn State
Iowa
Duke
USC
Syracuse

Tiebreaker

Vanderbilt 33 at Kentucky 17

 

[Edward]

Taking it out to the third tiebreaker with a formula that I don’t understand:

Todd -- 9

Edward – 9
Mark – 8
Earl – 7
Ben D – 7
BtheB – 6
Matt – 6
Randy – 5
Zach – 5
BenG – 3
Douglas – 3

The Sunday game between Georgia and South Carolina delayed the polls and odds this week. Look for this week's matchups later today or early tomorrow.

 

[toddpedlar]

Here's the easy way to explain the tie breaker

There are lots of ways one could compare predicted scores to actual scores. The one that is programmed into the spreadsheet uses two
measures of a prediction's accuracy: the total score, and the point spread. (I'm not a betting man, but these are also used in Vegas)

Calculate the difference in predicted total score and call it a.
Calculate the difference in predicted point spread and call it b.

Make these the base and height of a right triangle.

The closer prediction is the one that minimizes the length of the hypotenuse.

That is, the closer prediction has the smallest value of sqrt(a^2 + b^2).

You can get the point spread right, but be way off. A 7-6 predicted score is very bad if the final score was 42-41.

Similarly you can get the total right, but be way off. A 24-3 predicted score is very bad if the final score was 14-13.

This way evenly balances out those two measures (and makes it concrete so that the person running the pool doesn't have to make subjective guesses

Cheers,

T

 

[GulfCoast Presbyterian]

Here's the easy way to explain the tie breaker

There are lots of ways one could compare predicted scores to actual scores. The one that is programmed into the spreadsheet uses two
measures of a prediction's accuracy: the total score, and the point spread. (I'm not a betting man, but these are also used in Vegas)

Calculate the difference in predicted total score and call it a.
Calculate the difference in predicted point spread and call it b.

Make these the base and height of a right triangle.

The closer prediction is the one that minimizes the length of the hypotenuse.

That is, the closer prediction has the smallest value of sqrt(a^2 + b^2).

You can get the point spread right, but be way off. A 7-6 predicted score is very bad if the final score was 42-41.

Similarly you can get the total right, but be way off. A 24-3 predicted score is very bad if the final score was 14-13.

This way evenly balances out those two measures (and makes it concrete so that the person running the pool doesn't have to make subjective guesses

Cheers,

T

I am pretty sure that was profound, but it made my head hurt!

 

[toddpedlar]

Here's the easy way to explain the tie breaker

There are lots of ways one could compare predicted scores to actual scores. The one that is programmed into the spreadsheet uses two
measures of a prediction's accuracy: the total score, and the point spread. (I'm not a betting man, but these are also used in Vegas)

Calculate the difference in predicted total score and call it a.
Calculate the difference in predicted point spread and call it b.

Make these the base and height of a right triangle.

The closer prediction is the one that minimizes the length of the hypotenuse.

That is, the closer prediction has the smallest value of sqrt(a^2 + b^2).

You can get the point spread right, but be way off. A 7-6 predicted score is very bad if the final score was 42-41.

Similarly you can get the total right, but be way off. A 24-3 predicted score is very bad if the final score was 14-13.

This way evenly balances out those two measures (and makes it concrete so that the person running the pool doesn't have to make subjective guesses

Cheers,

T

I am pretty sure that was profound, but it made my head hurt!

No pain, no gain

 

[Edward]

Here's the easy way to explain the tie breaker

There are lots of ways one could compare predicted scores to actual scores. The one that is programmed into the spreadsheet uses two
measures of a prediction's accuracy: the total score, and the point spread. (I'm not a betting man, but these are also used in Vegas)

Calculate the difference in predicted total score and call it a.
Calculate the difference in predicted point spread and call it b.

Make these the base and height of a right triangle.

The closer prediction is the one that minimizes the length of the hypotenuse.

That is, the closer prediction has the smallest value of sqrt(a^2 + b^2).

You can get the point spread right, but be way off. A 7-6 predicted score is very bad if the final score was 42-41.

Similarly you can get the total right, but be way off. A 24-3 predicted score is very bad if the final score was 14-13.

This way evenly balances out those two measures (and makes it concrete so that the person running the pool doesn't have to make subjective guesses

Cheers,

T

All I know is that
6.32456
appears to beat
6.63325

I dropped Statistics and Intro Computer in college. I didn't have any problem writing and punching in Fortran programs in on the IBM cards, but I never did get the hang of statistics on those Wang calculators in the calculator lab. (I started writing Basic programs in 1972).

 

[GulfCoast Presbyterian]

When will the new polls be released?

 

[Edward]

When will the new polls be released?

Up now. Couldn't pull up the spreads on ESPN, so I had to use another site for research.