Baseball Managers aren't that smart

Anton Bruckner · #1 (**permalink**) 10-03-2005, 09:04 AM

It just occurred to me that Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr, and Alex Rodriguez all played for Seattle at one time????????????? Now why didn't management take a risk and lock them into long term contracts early in their careers before they become expensive?

Herald · #2 (**permalink**) 10-03-2005, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Slippery
It just occurred to me that Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr, and Alex Rodriguez all played for Seattle at one time????????????? Now why didn't management take a risk and lock them into long term contracts early in their careers before they become expensive?

Because of that very reason. They would have been expensive. You don't "lock" ballplayers into long term contracts until they have proved themselves. Seattle is a mid-market team. They could not afford the salaries.

Anton Bruckner · #3 (**permalink**) 10-03-2005, 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by BaptistInCrisis
You don't "lock" ballplayers into long term contracts until they have proved themselves. Seattle is a mid-market team. They could not afford the salaries.

But when they prove themselves, you can no longer afford them, hence your chances of winning diminishes. The only option for mid market teams is to identify talent early, and lock them in to long term contracts. But that's if they are serious of winning giving their constraints.
I think A. Rod came into the league just out of high school. Heck, they should have signed him to a 15 yr 30 million dollar deal. Any high school kid would have gobbled that up.

fredtgreco · #4 (**permalink**) 10-03-2005, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Slippery

Quote:

Originally posted by BaptistInCrisis
You don't "lock" ballplayers into long term contracts until they have proved themselves. Seattle is a mid-market team. They could not afford the salaries.

But when they prove themselves, you can no longer afford them, hence your chances of winning diminishes. The only option for mid market teams is to identify talent early, and lock them in to long term contracts. But that's if they are serious of winning giving their constraints.
I think A. Rod came into the league just out of high school. Heck, they should have signed him to a 15 yr 30 million dollar deal. Any high school kid would have gobbled that up.

Because for every A-Rod there are 10 Todd Van Poppels.

Anton Bruckner · #5 (**permalink**) 10-03-2005, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by fredtgreco

Because for every A-Rod there are 10 Todd Van Poppels.

its all a risk. As a Baseball Manager, my goal would be to win the World Series, not have an average team that I hope can win the world series.

If my budget is limited, I know I have to
1. Develop and keep most of my talent since I cannot afford to staff my roster with high priced players. This would call for extensive and intensive scouting from all over the world, to identify talented players with room for growth.

2. Mix and match. Maybe you would need a pitcher to take you over the hump, so you might have to sacrifice some more money.

Jerry Krause of the Bulls did the same thing by locking Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen into long term contracts. Scottie Pippen's contract was up in 1998, and that was the year the Bulls won their 6th and last championship.

Jordan's first contract was up in 1995, and that was a year after the Bulls won their third championship.

So it can be done, but the strategy must be pursued full time.

[Edited on 10-3-2005 by Slippery]

Herald · #6 (**permalink**) 10-03-2005, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Slippery

Quote:

Originally posted by BaptistInCrisis
You don't "lock" ballplayers into long term contracts until they have proved themselves. Seattle is a mid-market team. They could not afford the salaries.

But when they prove themselves, you can no longer afford them, hence your chances of winning diminishes. The only option for mid market teams is to identify talent early, and lock them in to long term contracts. But that's if they are serious of winning giving their constraints.
I think A. Rod came into the league just out of high school. Heck, they should have signed him to a 15 yr 30 million dollar deal. Any high school kid would have gobbled that up.

That is like finding a needle in a haystack. Your taking a gamble that this player will be a star. You will lose more than you will win. Also, players agents will not allow thier future stars to sign so early in their career. It is worth it to them to get to year six and test the market.

[Edited on 10-3-2005 by BaptistInCrisis]

Anton Bruckner · #7 (**permalink**) 10-04-2005, 04:27 PM

I don't think that it is an absolute gamble. I think that players do exhibit evidences of their talent, potential, character and desire to win during their early years. I think prescient managers are able to pick up on this, with a not so large margin of error.

e.g Isiah Thomas after seeing TMac play, drafted him for Toronto. Jerry West also saw Kobe Bryant play and negotiated a trade draft day to get him from Charlotte in exchange for Divacs. Kobe turned out to be arguably the best player of that lot, but the question is, why didn't the other teams picked him, and allowed him to sink 9th in the draft.

Why? Scouting. Jerry West watched Kobe as he played with Stackhouse and other NBA players, and identified that he was extremely talented with lots of upswing. As a result Lakers were able to win 3 championships with him, and garner much revenue.

Jerry West likewise went to Memphis, and made that team into a playoff team after it was a pitiful failure. Because of this, I believe that management cannot complain about their payroll and size of market. Heck, Memphis, San Antonio are not even big cities.