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At the very least your study reflects the Truth that you cannot take a verse in isolation from the rest of the Scriptures and you're doing the kind of work that is necessary to determine what Christ was trying to communicate. I agree that John 3:16 basically explains 3:14-15 and only a Dispensationalist would also miss the significance to the fact that the Congregation in the desert was to look in faith to Christ for salvation. I think this is one reason why Christ reproves Nicodemus because he's a teacher in Israel and doesn't understand the significant of OT types that pointed to Christ and the need for re-birth.
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