I don't think that it is an absolute gamble. I think that players do exhibit evidences of their talent, potential, character and desire to win during their early years. I think prescient managers are able to pick up on this, with a not so large margin of error.

e.g Isiah Thomas after seeing TMac play, drafted him for Toronto. Jerry West also saw Kobe Bryant play and negotiated a trade draft day to get him from Charlotte in exchange for Divacs. Kobe turned out to be arguably the best player of that lot, but the question is, why didn't the other teams picked him, and allowed him to sink 9th in the draft.

Why? Scouting. Jerry West watched Kobe as he played with Stackhouse and other NBA players, and identified that he was extremely talented with lots of upswing. As a result Lakers were able to win 3 championships with him, and garner much revenue.

Jerry West likewise went to Memphis, and made that team into a playoff team after it was a pitiful failure. Because of this, I believe that management cannot complain about their payroll and size of market. Heck, Memphis, San Antonio are not even big cities.

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~Keon Garraway~ Brooklyn, NY Member of Franklin Square OPC

Love for God demonstrated by the love for our children in giving them a God centered education is the only hope for our country. by David Morrow
Pslam 71:20 [Thou], which hast shewed me great and sore troubles, shalt quicken me again, and shalt bring me up again from the depths of the earth.